Investments

Year end is approaching fast and it is common to find analysts and experts trying to predict what will happen in the coming year. Not less so this year after what has been a very turbulent and difficult year with several large economies sliding into full blown Recession, the stock markets globally having lost in excess of a third of their value, some more, the property market having collapsed in major countries and several large commercial companies being threatened with bankruptcy and closure. Not to mention the financial sector which has seen some astounding collapses or bail outs in the last minute by governments.

One company, SAXO Bank who is a leading player in the Forex market, has made it a kind of tradition to come out with what they boldly call: “10 Outrageous Claims 2009″ which in their own analysts words is :

(A) thought provoking and controversial “Black Swan” exercise (that) always factors in the less likely scenarios as perceived by the market.

The primary reason for doing this “Black Swan” exercise every year is to counter-balance human psychology, which is usually skewed towards optimism. We tend to be somewhat more pessimistic in our Yearly Outlook than the average analyst in the market, and believe that it is important for the investor to always factor in the less likely scenarios (as perceived by the market). Please keep in mind that this is more of a thought exercise than a set of outright predictions – we do not consider the chances are better than 50-50 for all of these claims.

So what are the Danes’ predictions of doom and gloom then ? Well is has everything from Revolutions to Crude Oil falling belwo US$ 25 to the Euro falling below 1 US$ - here is a list of the 10 Outrageous Claims as summarized by Michael Haltman of Gather.com :

1. An Iranian Revolution
2. Crude dropping to $25 a barrel
3. The S&P 500 falling to 500 (880 now)
4. Italy dropping the Euro
5. Australian dollar slumping versus the Yen
6. The Euro falling below $1.00
7. Chinese GDP growth falling to 0% (current estimates range from 6-10%)
8. Eastern European Forex Pegs to Fail
9. Sharp declines in commodities prices
10. Yen could become the Asian currency peg over the dollar

MarketWatch quotes one of their team leaders from their Research & Strategy Division, David Karsbol, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank:

It is not even outrageous to call this the worst economic crisis ever. We have, regrettably, been rather precise in almost all predictions from last year. What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, says Karsbol.

“In a year when markets and economies have fluctuated more widely than ever before nothing seems out of the ordinary or impossible. We believe that 2009 will be equally unpredictable and therefore have made ten outrageous predictions largely focusing and what might happen to global indices and currencies. The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can’t get much worse” says Karsb0l.

“In 2008 the S&P 500 has fallen well over 25% below its 1182 high of 2007, world oil prices got close to the predicted high of $175, and UK growth has turned negative. Who knows which of our 2009 forecasts will prove to be right but judging by previous years some of them most certainly will,” he adds.

     “When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.” (John M. Richardson, Jr)

“The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time.” (Abraham Lincoln)

     “Stop acting as if life is a rehearsal. Live this day as if it were your last. The past is over and gone. The future is not guaranteed.” (Wayne Dyer)

My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there” (Charles F. Kettering)

He who laughs last laughs longest

 

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SEC Chairman Christopher Cox

 

The Bernard Madoff investment fraud scandal is still evolving with Mr Madoff having been brought before a judge in NYC recently and lately with an open admission of guilt by the SEC Chairman Christopher Cox.

This post highlights his admission of lack of control and investigation and considers what the experts feel about the same.

In a MarketWatch article on the subject Mr Cox is quoted for saying :

In a statement Cox said an initial probe into how Madoff’s alleged fraud remained undetected revealed “multiple failures” by the regulator to thoroughly investigate the former Nasdaq chairman and his firm.

“The Commission has learned that credible and specific allegations regarding Mr Madoff’s financial wrongdoing, going back to at least 1999, were repeatedly brought to the attention of SEC staff, but were never recommended to the Commission for action,” Cox said in the statement.

He’s revolted by what he found out, but it’s also in his interest to be revolted,” said James Cox, a securities law professor at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina who isn’t related to the SEC chairman. “He’s taken a lot of heat over SEC enforcement.”

Cox said he has ordered a full review to investigate the past allegations against Madoff and why they were not found to be credible. The probe, to be led by the regulator’s inspector general, will also look at all staff contact and relationships with the Madoff family and firm and whether they had any impact on decisions by SEC staff.

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This posts provides an overview of what some of the leading experts and sources list and recommend as Hot Stocks given their recent performance and value so have a read through !

Forbes has a good overview of movers and shakers from The Far East:

The China Enterprise Index of top locally listed mainland Chinese firms was up 1.87 percent to 7,362.09.

Here are some of the stocks on the move:

Financial stocks remained strong after China said it planned to stabilise its stock market and ensure liquidity in the banking system.

China’s biggest lender, ICBC, and smaller rival China Construction Bank gained about 1 percent on hopes China will further cut the reserve requirement on deposits to spur lending.

The nation’s No. 1 insurer, China Life Insurance, rose 3.7 percent, while smaller rivals Ping An Insurance soared 6 percent and PICC P&C surged 3.2 percent.

 * Properties remained in focus with investors hunting for bargains after their recent weakness amid the gloomy outlook for the real estate sector.

Developer Sun Hung Kai Properties rose as much as 1.5 percent on Friday morning despite revising downward its apartment sales target by 20 percent to HK$16 billion for this fiscal year ending in June 2009 from HK$20 billion as the global financial crisis hits Hong Kong’s property market, but it expects a market pick-up in early 2009.

And the article ends up with a round up some other Asian giants and how they are performing :

* Chinese telecom shares rose on renewed speculation that 3G licences will be issued by the end of the year. The nation’s biggest cellular phone network China Mobile rose 2.9 percent, while smaller rival China Unicom gained 2 percent.

 * Hutchison Whampoa rose 2.4 percent after Shenzhen Yantian Port Group said on Thursday that Hutchison, the world’s biggest container terminal operator, had agreed to invest in a container terminal in the city’s Yantian East area.

 * Shanghai Electric Group’s H-shares surged 3.4 percent, marking the trading debut of domestic A shares of the heavy equipment maker in Shanghai on Friday. The company said it has secured more than 80 billion yuan worth of orders in 2008, with outstanding orders in power equipment, heavy machinery and transportation equipment divisions valued at over 180 billion yuan as of Sept 30.

Jim Jubak of MSN Money is hot on Commodity Stocks and explains why:

We’re building the foundation for the next boom in commodity prices — and commodity stocks.

I can’t give you any guarantee that commodity prices won’t tumble further in the short term. In fact, I think that’s very likely to happen as the U.S. economy slips into recession (possibly along with the economies of Japan and the European Union).

But right now commodity stocks are factoring in huge declines in demand and tumbling commodity prices over the long term that just aren’t going to occur. A patient investor who can put up with the pain of the next six, nine or 12 months can now buy a very reasonably priced option on the shares of the strongest commodity producers for the next leg up in commodity prices. I peg the beginning of the next boom at late 2009 or early 2010.

Mr Jubak goes on to explain why even the current financial crisis could impact the commodity stocks postively :

The economic laws of supply and demand don’t care if we’re reluctant to revisit a stock market sector that has delivered so much pain. And as hard as it may be to believe right now, it looks like the current meltdown in global financial markets isn’t going to have much effect on the trends that made commodity stocks big winners until mid-2008.

Growing demand from the rising economies (and the increasingly wealthy consumers) of China, India, Brazil and the Middle East is still going to drive up the long-term price of everything from oil to zinc. In fact, the current global financial crisis could make the commodity boom that much stronger when it does return.

Marketwatch.com has some predictions for Monday trade which are worth noting:

Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Monday’s session are National Semiconductor Corp., H&R Block Inc., and Worthington Industries Inc.

Click here for their full recommendations and insights.

Finally, Richard Gibbons of The Motley Fool talks about stocks you should avoid at present:

The amazing thing about this market is that there are so many cheap stocks. The problem with this market is that there are so many companies that could really blow up on investors.

Your investing success in the next year will be largely determined by your ability to sniff out and avoid losers. With that in mind, here are some suggestions for stocks you should avoid.

Speculative companies
Right now, you should avoid money-losing businesses, companies that need high growth to justify their high earnings multiples, start-up companies that are dependent on the growth of new markets, and other speculative stocks.

Right now, you can find solid, blue-chip stocks that are undervalued by unprecedented amounts. If you can buy a stock that should be trading at double or triple the price, why would you want to risk your money on a stock with less probable gains? In such an environment, speculative bets just don’t make sense.

For instance, right now General Motors (NYSE: GM) is trading at 66-year lows — and the stock still isn’t cheap. The company is projected to lose money as far as the eye can see, and it’s begging for government assistance. Why would you even consider buying GM when you can get Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) — arguably the strongest company in the world with $18 billion in yearly income — at less than nine times its forward earnings multiple? GM simply doesn’t make sense.

When even established, well-capitalized companies are seeing strong headwinds, stay away from the companies that aren’t well-positioned.

To read this rest of his article on things to consider before you buy shares click here - and you should also consider getting their Motley Fool Inside Value report - worth a read for sure !

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