SAXO Bank’s “Outrageous 2009 Claims” : True or False ?
Year end is approaching fast and it is common to find analysts and experts trying to predict what will happen in the coming year. Not less so this year after what has been a very turbulent and difficult year with several large economies sliding into full blown Recession, the stock markets globally having lost in excess of a third of their value, some more, the property market having collapsed in major countries and several large commercial companies being threatened with bankruptcy and closure. Not to mention the financial sector which has seen some astounding collapses or bail outs in the last minute by governments.
One company, SAXO Bank who is a leading player in the Forex market, has made it a kind of tradition to come out with what they boldly call: “10 Outrageous Claims 2009″ which in their own analysts words is :
(A) thought provoking and controversial “Black Swan” exercise (that) always factors in the less likely scenarios as perceived by the market.
The primary reason for doing this “Black Swan” exercise every year is to counter-balance human psychology, which is usually skewed towards optimism. We tend to be somewhat more pessimistic in our Yearly Outlook than the average analyst in the market, and believe that it is important for the investor to always factor in the less likely scenarios (as perceived by the market). Please keep in mind that this is more of a thought exercise than a set of outright predictions – we do not consider the chances are better than 50-50 for all of these claims.
So what are the Danes’ predictions of doom and gloom then ? Well is has everything from Revolutions to Crude Oil falling belwo US$ 25 to the Euro falling below 1 US$ - here is a list of the 10 Outrageous Claims as summarized by Michael Haltman of Gather.com :
- An Iranian Revolution
- Crude dropping to $25 a barrel
- The S&P 500 falling to 500 (880 now)
- Italy dropping the Euro
- Australian dollar slumping versus the Yen
- The Euro falling below $1.00
- Chinese GDP growth falling to 0% (current estimates range from 6-10%)
- Eastern European Forex Pegs to Fail
- Sharp declines in commodities prices
- Yen could become the Asian currency peg over the dollar
MarketWatch quotes one of their team leaders from their Research & Strategy Division, David Karsbol, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank:
It is not even outrageous to call this the worst economic crisis ever. We have, regrettably, been rather precise in almost all predictions from last year. What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, says Karsbol.
“In a year when markets and economies have fluctuated more widely than ever before nothing seems out of the ordinary or impossible. We believe that 2009 will be equally unpredictable and therefore have made ten outrageous predictions largely focusing and what might happen to global indices and currencies. The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can’t get much worse” says Karsb0l.“In 2008 the S&P 500 has fallen well over 25% below its 1182 high of 2007, world oil prices got close to the predicted high of $175, and UK growth has turned negative. Who knows which of our 2009 forecasts will prove to be right but judging by previous years some of them most certainly will,” he adds.
“When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.” (John M. Richardson, Jr)
My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there” (Charles F. Kettering)
He who laughs last laughs longest
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